To give us all some idea of what this means contracts to protect Ukraine’s government bonds against default now cost 59.5 percent upfront and 5 percent a year, according to CMA Datavision prices for credit-default swaps today. That means it costs $5.95 million in advance and $500,000 a year to protect $10 million of bonds for five years. The cost is higher than for any other government debt worldwide.
The extra yield investors demand to Ukrainian bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries has risen 10-fold in the past year and at about 32 percentage points is the highest of any country with dollar-denominated bonds except Ecuador, which defaulted in December, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. EMBI+ indexes.
S&P defines an obligation rated CCC as “currently vulnerable to nonpayment, and is dependent upon favorable business, financial and economic conditions for the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation. In the event of adverse business, financial, or economic conditions, the obligor is not likely to have the capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.”
Fitch Ratings cut Ukraine’s ratings to B, the fifth-highest non-investment grade only two weeks ago and kept the outlook “negative,”. Moody’s said yesterday that there is a good possibility they will cut their Ukraine ratings within three months.
The hryvnia tumbled yesterday, closing at a record low against the dollar, on all the talk about credit downgrades and Eastern Europe's economic problems. The currency dropped 3.4 percent to 9.26 per dollar at 6:10 p.m. in Kiev, below the previous lowest close of 9.10 reached on 18 December last. The hyrvnia has now lost more than 50 percent against the dollar in the past six months.
Ukraine started this crisis with comparatively little state debt, but as the costs of bailouts and recession fighting have mounted the debt has surged upwards. Total state debt increased in November by 33 percent to $22.1 billion from $16.6 billion the previous month, according to recent data from the Ukraine Finance Ministry. In December, the total debt increased by a further 9 percent - up to $24.1 billion. The government initially targeted a budget deficit of 18.8 billion hryvnias ($2.34 billion) or about 2 percent of gross domestic product in 2008. It later cut the gap below 1 percent of gross domestic product, meeting an agreement with the International Monetary Fund which approved a $16.4 billion loan to Ukraine to help stabilize the economy.
Thus Ukraine’s total state debt in 2008 increased by 37 percent to $24.1 billion from $17.6 billion in 2007. It is however still at a pretty low level, being estimated by the IMF in their last standby loan report to rise to some 17.4% of GDP in 2009. The real problem are the mounting liabilities in the private sector, and how these can fall inwards onto state finances.
Update: Wages Fall Rapidly
Average Ukrainian wages fell by 16.8% in January (to UAH 1,665 per month) over the level of December, according to the State Statistics Committee yesterday. The highest average wages were paid out in Kyiv (UAH 2,794 per month), down 21.3% over the level of December 2008. We need to treat this kind of data with some caution, since obviously seasonal factors are at work, and average wages were still up (by 9.4%) over January 2008.
However inflation is still very high in Ukraine, so even with a 10% annual increase in money wages real wages are falling sharply. Inflation was up again in January rising at a 2.9 percent rate over December, which compares with a 2.1 percent rise in December over November. the country's Economy Ministry said. Year on year inflation was running at 22.3% in January.
In addition to the drop in real wages (and the rise in unemployment), there is a problem with unpaid salaries. As of Feb. 1, 2009, the volume of unpaid salaries and wages was up by 35.7% compared to January 1, with the largest volume of wage arrears being observed (rather unsurprisingly) in Donetsk region.
Current Account Surplus
On the other hand Ukraine did have a current account surplus of $500 million in January, according to provisional data released by the acting head of the National Bank, Anatoly Shapovalov yesterday (Wednesday). Shapovalov said the first current account surplus in recent years was due to a steeper decline in imports than in exports. However, the overall balance of payments continues to be in deficit since the flow of capital is neagtive, with loan repayments far exceeding the volume of new loans raised. Thus the he financial account deficit was $2.3 billion in January.
Shapovalov estimated that the balance of payments deficit as coming in at $12 billion for 2009, with the National Bank hoping to receive $9.6 billion from the International Monetary Fund in 2009, which "would be a big help," he said.
Ukraine's current account deficit widened to $11.9 billion or 6.7% of GDP in 2008 from $5.3 billion or 3.7% of GDP in 2007, according to preliminary data from the National Bank. The current account deficit grew as the visible trade deficit rose to $16 billion.
Unsurprisingly, with all this going on, bank lending is reducing, and in January, the total consumer loans were down by an annual 1.8 percent compared to a 7.7 percent rise in December 2008.