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Thursday, January 15, 2009

Industrial Output Continues Its Decline In December

Ukraine’s industrial output continued its rapid decline in December, falling for a fifth consecutive month, led by steel, chemical and machine building. Output tumbled an annual 26.6 percent, following a 28.6 year on year decline in November, and a 19.8% one in October.

December steel production slumped 42.7 percent, chemical output fell 40 percent, and machine building dropped 37.1 percent. The annual contraction rate slowed slightly in December, but this may be a partly a statistical artefact due to what is know as the "low base effect" in December 2007, however output was up by 3.2% in December over November, which may be a result of the sharp drop in the value of the hryvnia. I would be surprised if we didn't see further falls in output, but we will need to wait and see what happens in the coming months.

For a full analysis of what is happening in Ukraine, see my As The Politicians Battle It Out Ukraine's Economy Tunnels South In Search Of Australia