Facebook Blogging

Edward Hugh has a lively and enjoyable Facebook community where he publishes frequent breaking news economics links and short updates. If you would like to receive these updates on a regular basis and join the debate please invite Edward as a friend by clicking the Facebook link at the top of the right sidebar.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

12% GDP Contraction Forecast For Ukraine Economy In 2009

Ihor Burakovsky, the director and board chairman of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting says that "experts" have forecast a 12% drop in Ukraine's GDP in 2009 and an 18% inflation rate. I'm not sure who the experts in question are, but the number doesn't seem unrealistic at all to me, given the data we are seeing. First some information from the Ukraine Statistics website.

During January-February 2009, indices of industrial products were 67.2% as compared with January-February 2008. This means there was a 32.8% drop in output year on year over the two months. In fact output was up slightly month on month (by 5.4%) in February, in part as a result of the demand for steel exports produced by the sharp Hyrvnia devaluation, and February output was "only" down by 31.6%, following January's 34.1% annual fall, so you could say that things were getting better, but frankly, and at this stage of the game, such finesse is a little but lost on me.




Construction output in January-February 2009 was just 42.7% of the level hit in the same period last year


In the January-February period, cargo shipments were 97.4 mln. tons, that is to say they were just 66.5% of the volume of goods transported during January-February 2008.

In January 2009, Ukraine exports were 2439.6 million dollars while imports were 2041.8 million dollars. This means that exports were down 33.4% while imports were down 56% over January 2008.


In February 2009, the consumer price was up 1.5% over January, up 4.4% so far this year, and up 20.9% over February 2008.



In January 2009 real wages and salaries of employees were down by 19.4% when compared with December 2008. Also total wages in arrears stood at 1525.1 million UAH as 1 of February 2009, up from 1123.5 million UAH on 1 January 2009 (35% increase on the month)

The unemployment rate (using the ILO methodology) for January-September 2008, on average, was 6,5% of economically active working age population. Unfortunately this is the most recent labour force survey data we have. Undoubtedly these numbers have increased significantly over the last 5 months.

In 2008, the Ukraine GDP was up 2.1% when compared with 2007, which means, if the so-called "experts" prediction is anywhere near right (and it doesn't look that unrealistic) the GDP growth chart since 1993 will look something like this, which for a comparatively poor country struggling to catch up is little short of a disaster.



Ukrainian still has not received the second installment of a $16.4 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund although Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko said last week that "she is confident" it will be agreed to.

One of the sticking points with the IMF had been the projected 2009 budget, but Ukraine’s Parliament last week changed the 2009 state budget law to strengthen the central bank’s independence, meeting one key IMF demand for getting the second installment of the loan (we will remember the Parliament was debating sending the governor to prison for allowing the currency to float, again another one of the key IMF demands). Lawmakers need to pass two more bills to qualify for the $1.9 billion installment of the IMF loan, which originally was expected on Feb. 15, according to Oleksandr Shlapak, the first deputy head of the president’s staff, with the central bone of contention being the 5% budget deficit projected for 2009, and on a lot lower contraction forecast than the current "most realistic case" scenario.

Really looking at all this, what we have here is a country in total monetary, financial, and economic disarray, and this is before we even start to think about the demographic unwinding which lies ahead. No wonder Dominique Strauss Kahn recently warned of the catastrophe which looms before us. I seriously doubt any knows what to do about all this, I certainly don't. Tear my hair out perhaps. But I already have precious little left.

13 comments:

John Kalitka said...

Great blog! Thanks for your efforts and analysis. I'm no economist, and Ukraine clearly has some major macroeconomic and structural problems, but as a matter of comparison, I've read elsewhere that that the U.K. and U.S. deficits for 2009 are 10% and 12% of GDP, respectively. Can those figures be meaningfully compared?

Edward Hugh said...

Hi John,

"I've read elsewhere that that the U.K. and U.S. deficits for 2009 are 10% and 12% of GDP, respectively. Can those figures be meaningfully compared?"

Well not really, for the basic reason that Ukraine is so poor, I think.

Also you seem to be talking about fiscal deficits, we are talking here about GDP contraction. I don't know, no one does, and I'm not a specialist on those economies, but my guess is that the annual rate of GDP contraction in US and UK will be half the Ukraine one.

Of the two you mention, the UK makes me most nervous. There is just such a lot of external exposure in the UK financial system. The US was mainly creating debt, not exposing itself to other peoples. But, as I say, I am not a specialist.

The Ukraine is just such a tragic situation, since on top of everything else it has such a massive demographic problem, whereas in the UK and US cases the population pyramids are a lot more sustainable, so basically there will be a better proportion of people to work off the debt.

John Kalitka said...

I see the distinction now. Thank you. As for demography, I suspect your theory is sound. I seem to recall that Ukraine had about 52 million citizens in the early and mid-1990s; now, the figure stands at about 46-47 million. "Brain drain" and "greener pastures" must account for much of this shift, as well as the falling birth rate. So...it isn't a pretty picture.

Nonetheless, I suppose I'm more sanguine--or naïve--about all this when compared to many other observers. Somehow the Ukrainian people have managed to survive under the oppression of far worse--even purposeful--tragedy and misfortune. I believe the country will ultimately beat down its demons....

Edward Hugh said...

Hi again,

"Somehow the Ukrainian people have managed to survive under the oppression of far worse--even purposeful--tragedy and misfortune. I believe the country will ultimately beat down its demons...."

I would like to believe this John, I really would. You have no idea how much I would.

The problem is, I am seeing these sort of statements in East European country after East European country at the moment.

Here's a comment from a Slovenain bank analyst:

"I just wanted to give you my thoughts about the criss we face. Slovenia and other CEE/SEE countries that abandoned communism (socialism) in the 90s and adopted market economy principles are in my opinion used to hard and tough conditions (lets say it demanding)."

This we can take the pain, we are used to it theme is very extended. In Spain, people are even referring to the spirit of the late Franco years. Such appeals to national pride are fine, I ahve nothing against them, but they need to be backed ny practical plans, and realistic strategies, and that is the part I all too often find missing, even in Spain.

Hynek Filip said...

Edward, John got it right.

The Eastern Europeans (let alone the Chinese) did indeed have to cope with demons infinitely worse than the current crisis, there is no doubt about that. In fact, the same applies to most Western nations, only our collective experience is much more recent.

Which leads me to your point: of course that there must be good plans and realistic strategies. But which of the Western governments has actually come up with anything resembling such plans? Zapatero? Cowen? Brown? Merkel? Well, Dr Merkel does not seem to panic easily.

So to sum up, you have both halves of Europe in the grips of the same crisis. Nobody at all has come up with any realistic solutions. However, at the very least, the East seems to have some little faith left.

And perhaps it is the most practical of all plans: do not create any grand plans, just have faith in a few good old principles.

Do not ever borrow money to consume. Save for a rainy day. Work hard and take care of your family and friends. Live within your means, build businesses, buy art, land, houses, silver and gold.

Anonymous said...

Ukraine economy ‘shrank by up to 30%’

KIEV, March 31 (Reuters) - Ukraine’s economy shrank by 25-30 per cent year on year in the first two months of 2009, but concerted measures to tackle the financial crisis can restore growth, President Viktor Yushchenko said on Tuesday.

Growth in the ex-Soviet state, hit by shrinking markets for its steel and chemical exports, stood at 5.8 per cent of gross domestic product in the same period of 2008. ”We were ill-prepared to confront the crisis and its first blow was painful and difficult...,” Mr Yushchenko told parliament in his state of the nation annual address.

”The consequence of this was a slowdown in GDP growth in 2008 to 2.1 per cent... and a destructive fall of 25-30 per cent according to figures from January-February 2009.” He said he was quoting the figures despite ”determined efforts to conceal them”.

The State Statistics Committee has stopped publishing monthly GDP growth rates and now releases them only quarterly, three months after the event.

”Before the crisis, [annual] growth rates in the Ukrainian economy stood at 6.5-7.0 per cent. I believe, I am certain that this indicator will be restored,” the president told deputies in his 45-minute address.

”We have lost our foreign markets and 60 per cent of Ukrainian exports. All our foreign currency earnings depended on these markets as did the jobs of nearly 2m people in steel, chemicals and related sectors.”

Parliament was due to consider several pieces of legislation intended to restore the flow credits from a $16.4bn International Monetary Fund loan.

The fund suspended the credits in a disagreement over the implementation of a reform programme.

Mr Yushchenko said the first step to taken was an immediate alteration of the 2009 budget to reduce expenditure and measures to support the banking system.

”We must review the 2009 budget immediately and fundamentally,” he said. ”We must reduce all unproductive expenditure and once and for all live within our means.”

Differences with the IMF have also focused on the size of the 2009 budget deficit. The fund initially insisted on a deficit-free budget, but now says it can accept a deficit if the government can finance it.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6298ba48-1dd2-11de-830b-00144feabdc0.html

Anonymous said...

By Emma O’Brien

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Ukraine and Kazakhstan, home to two of this year’s worst emerging stock markets, are driving away investors by attempting to prevent capital flight.

Ukraine ordered banks this month to buy and sell the hryvnia at a rate no weaker than a floor policy makers set each day. Kazakhstan’s parliament is preparing to give the president power to force exporters to sell the government their foreign- currency earnings for tenge.

“If you’ve got money in a country that introduces some sort of controls, that’s an issue and so we’re steering pretty clear of that area right now,” said Andrew Bosomworth, a fund manager in Munich at Pacific Investment Management Co. who helps oversee more than $50 billion in emerging-market debt for the world’s largest bond-fund manager. “The best way to attract private money that’s going to stay there is to provide a coherent environment to invest in.”

The two nations devalued their currencies and took over struggling banks in the past six months as the first global recession since World War II slashed demand for exports at the same time that frozen credit markets drove away foreign investment.

Ukraine’s PFTS stock index fell 26 percent this year and the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange Shares Index lost 28 percent, ranking among the worst emerging-market performers with Costa Rica, Nigeria, Serbia, Qatar and Bosnia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Slumping Currency

Ukraine’s foreign-currency reserves were reduced by a third in the six months to February, with most of that $12 billion drop due to the central bank’s purchases of hryvnia, said Ivan Tchakarov, an economist in London at Nomura Holdings Inc. The currency has slumped 37 percent versus the dollar since September as sales of steel, the nation’s biggest export, fell 50 percent in the year to February and the governing coalition collapsed over the handling of the economic crisis.

President Viktor Yushchenko, a former central bank governor who defeated a pro-Russian candidate after protests in 2004 over rigged elections, opposes Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko’s moves to fire current bank chief Volodymyr Stelmakh and to negotiate with Russia for a $5 billion loan.

Ukraine has received the first $4.5 billion installment of a $16.4 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has delayed the second loan installment of $1.9 billion until the former Soviet state cuts a 2009 budget deficit equal to 5 percent of gross domestic product. The IMF will accept a budget gap of 3.1 percent of GDP, Yushchenko said March 23.

Minimum Rate

The central bank’s mandatory minimum hryvnia rate was 7.9724 per dollar when it was last updated yesterday. That’s 3 percent stronger than the 8.24 per dollar spot rate currency traders at Galt & Taggart Holdings Inc. saw quoted today, said Jathan Tucker, head of trading at the Kiev-based brokerage.

Countries like Ukraine and Kazakhstan need capital controls so they can stop hemorrhaging money, said Douglas Polunin, who manages about $200 million in emerging-market assets, including Ukrainian and Kazakh equities, at Polunin Capital Partners in London.

“They help the economy because you don’t have this sudden flow of money rushing out of the country that has such a destabilizing effect on company balance sheets,” Polunin said. “Overall capital controls are a good thing, though foreign investors do get frightened because of concerns they won’t be able to withdraw their money.”

Held Responsible

The central bank’s currency regulation department told lenders on March 17 that chairmen would be held responsible for the hryvnia exchange rates quoted on their bank Web sites and on information systems such as Bloomberg and Reuters, according to Natsionalnyi Bank Ukrainy’s head of external relations, Serhiy Kruhlik.

The central bank suspended interbank trade agreements with Ukrainian lenders Partner-Bank, Sigmabank and Premium for disrupting the exchange rate, Delo newspaper reported today, citing a letter from the Natsionalnyi Bank. Partner Bank’s press secretary Olga Sandler in Kiev denied the allegations, saying “we think it’s a mistake.”

The hryvnia’s drop is rooted in “psychological and speculative factors” and authorities will leave “no stone unturned” in investigating possible currency speculation Yushchenko said in a statement on his Web site March 11.

Yushchenko has promised Ukraine would emerge from the crisis with a revived economy, saying March 25 the government has formed a “clear response.”

‘Highly Sensitive’

“Clearly the level of foreign currency depletion is politically highly sensitive, and there’s an idea that speculators have ripped them off,” said Tim Ash, head of emerging-market economics in London at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

Moscow-based Prosperity Capital Management, which oversees $1.9 billion in former Soviet assets, has been selling Ukrainian equities. Its fund managers have been unable to get money out of the country because banks are unwilling to lose dollars from their stockpiles by converting hryvnia-denominated proceeds, said Ivan Mazalov, a Prosperity director.

“It’s a bloodbath,” he said.

Ukraine’s central bank has taken control of 11 local lenders since requesting the IMF loan. The Washington-based fund estimates the country will need to spend about 4.5 percent of its GDP to recapitalize the banking sector.

The yield on 4.95 percent euro-denominated Ukraine government bonds due 2015 doubled to 24 percent in the past six months. Russian dollar-bonds due 2018 yield just 6.61 percent.

Most Expensive

Credit-default swaps insuring Ukrainian government debt are the most expensive in emerging Europe, according to prices from CMA Datavision in London. They cost 60.5 percent of the amount covered upfront and 5 percent a year. That means investors must pay $6.1 million in advance and $500,000 a year to protect $10 million in bonds for five years. Six months ago, that same protection cost $567,000 a year and nothing upfront.

Yaroslav Lissovolik, chief economist in Moscow at Deutsche Bank AG, said Ukraine may impose “outright taxation on withdrawals leaving the country” or require exporters to sell some or all of their foreign-currency earnings to the central bank at rates it dictates.

In Kazakhstan, the government is preparing to block foreign currency from leaving. The Majilis, the lower house of parliament, has twice given preliminary approval to a measure that would let President Nursultan Nazarbayev compel exporters to sell foreign-exchange earnings to the government for tenge.

‘Painful’ Possibility

Kazakhstan’s exporters include Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil Corp, the world’s biggest oil company; Courbevoie, France- based Total SA, Europe’s third-largest oil group; and San Ramon, California-based Chevron Corp, the second-biggest U.S. oil producer.

Those companies wouldn’t be able to pay dividends to international shareholders or repatriate profits under this type of capital control, said Tatiana Orlova, an economist in Moscow at ING Groep NV. “It would be painful,” she said.

The Kazakh bill, which needs Senate approval before the president considers it, would also ban companies and citizens from making foreign-currency transfers overseas.

National Bank of Kazakhstan allowed the tenge to weaken 21 percent versus the dollar on Feb. 4 after Russia let the ruble depreciate 36 percent in the previous six months as oil prices fell 67 percent. Oil is the largest export earner for both Russia and Kazakhstan.

The tenge will be held at 150 per dollar for the rest of the year, central bank Governor Grigori Marchenko said on Feb. 18 and again a month later.

The Almaty-based central bank didn’t immediately to questions e-mailed to spokeswoman Aigul Amankulova yesterday.

Economic Contraction

Kazakhstan, which holds 3.2 percent of the world’s oil reserves according to BP Plc, is facing its first contraction in economic growth in a decade as the government vows to spend as much as $4 billion bailing out banks. The state is the majority shareholder in BTA Bank, the country’s biggest lender, and may take a 76 percent share of Alliance Bank, the fourth-largest, said Margulan Seisembayev, its chairman, on March 2.

Credit-default swaps for Kazakhstan government debt have more than tripled to 1,006 basis points, or 10.06 percent of the amount covered, in the past six months, making them the second most expensive in the ex-Soviet and eastern European region. It costs $1 million a year to protect $10 million in debt from default each year for five years.

To contact the reporter on this story: Emma O’Brien in Moscow at eobrien6@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 31, 2009 08:25 EDT

Anonymous said...

Call for urgent Ukraine reform
By Roman Olearchyk in Kiev
Published: March 31 2009 11:38 | Last updated: March 31 2009 22:50
Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine’s president, on Tuesday called for urgent economic and political reforms in response to a huge drop in the country’s output, and launched a bitter attack on the prime minister, his fierce rival, over her handling of the crisis.


Viktor Yushchenko, the Ukraine president, delivers his annual state of the nation address in parliament
In a state of the nation address to parliament, Mr Yushchenko claimed Ukraine’s gross domestic product had plunged by an annual 25 to 30 per cent in January and February. He urged lawmakers to press ahead with legislation to clear the way for an International Monetary Fund rescue package and constitutional reforms to clarify the division of power between the president and parliament.
The president slammed Yulia Tymoshenko, his flamboyant prime minister, saying the country had been “ill prepared to confront the crisis” and accusing the government of purposefully trying to “conceal” the slowdown by releasing economic data quarterly, rather than monthly.

His speech underscored the depth of the economic crisis facing Ukraine, the European country worst affected by the credit crunch, and the damage done to political stability by rifts in the Kiev leadership.

Parliament is most unlikely to co-operate with Mr Yushchenko’s constitutional reform plans. But the divided assembly is scheduled this week to consider legislation required to unfreeze a $16.4bn standby loan granted by the IMF last autumn. The Fund’s first $4.5bn tranche last autumn helped to stabilise Kiev’s shaky banking system and currency, which lost 40 per cent of its value last year. But further disbursements have been delayed because of IMF concerns over the size of Ukraine’s budget deficit and political infighting.

Mr Yushchenko has told parliament to bring the budget deficit down to less than 3 per cent. On Tuesday, parliament raised taxes on petrol, cigarettes and alcohol. But Ms Tymoshenko is refusing to cut spending or raise utility tariffs, insisting it would be too much of a burden on cash-strapped citizens. She says the president’s allies are sabotaging her initiatives to meet the IMF’s demands.

Ukraine has been hit hard by falling global trade, frozen credit and plunging prices for steel, the country’s main export. Output was also hit when Russia cut off natural gas supplies in January in a dispute over prices.

Unemployment has doubled to 1m since autumn and polls suggest that an increasing number of Ukrainians are sympathetic to anti-government protests About a third of household bank deposits have been withdrawn in the past six months, prompting fears that Kiev’s financial woes could affect western Europe. European banks control more than 20 per cent of Ukraine’s banking system.

In February, the owners of seven troubled banks appealed for state bail-outs, offering for their banks to be nationalised in return. But it remains uncertain how many of Ukraine’s 180 banks the cash-strapped government can save.

Alexander Valchyshen, head of research at Investment Capital Ukraine, a Kiev-based asset management firm, said: “Resuming co-operation with the IMF is very crucial to shore up confidence.”

Ms Tymoshenko has appealed to the world’s richest countries for a loan of up to $5bn (€3.8bn, £3.5bn) to cover the budget deficit. But Mr Valchyshen warned that lenders would not grant a loan until co-operation with the IMF was resumed.

“Meeting IMF requirements is a sign of prudence in fiscal and monetary policymaking. If this co-operation fails, then there is a risk that the government will turn to inflationary financing of the fiscal deficit,” covering the shortfall by printing currency, Mr Valchyshen added.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6298ba48-1dd2-11de-830b-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1

Anonymous said...

It takes some doing for an economy to shrink by a third. But that is what Ukraine managed to do in January and February compared with last year. Long the worst-managed economy among its central European peers, Ukraine has been savaged by the fall in steel and chemical prices, insolvent banks, and squabbles between Viktor Yushchenko, the president and Yulia Tymoshenko, the prime minister, a running stand-off that has paralysed policymaking. The country has a $16bn International Monetary Fund agreement to help it through – but disbursements have been held up by Ukraine’s inability to agree a budget. Without IMF money and the other funds that could follow, debt defaults are increasingly likely.

From financial crisis to economic crisis; from economic crisis to social crisis; and from there to political crisis: Ukraine’s woes are those of much of central Europe, only thrown into ghastly relief. Most forecasters expect the region’s economies to contract sharply this year, and possibly recover in 2010. That would follow the pattern of the most recent other emerging markets crisis, Asia’s meltdown in 1998. Emerging Asia, however, bounced back quickly thanks to steep devaluations, a growing world economy and western banks that were not on their knees.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/c8333bc2-1df9-11de-830b-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F1%2Fc8333bc2-1df9-11de-830b-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Feurope

Anonymous said...

We have also to see, that a lot of banks or at least an important part of banks in the West have been nationalized or face other restrictions.

So lending to Eastern European economies will be probably be less done in the future than now. And as a lot of these countries, especially Ukraine, relied on foreign money inflows and financed their deficit in this way, there will also be not so fast that growth in the nearest future which we had in the last years.

In thinking of terms of Current Account deficits, we must be aware, that from a Welfare Economics point of view, respectivley from a microeconomic utility maximization point of view, it can be optimal to borrow temporarily from abroad. Obviously, on the other hand, Current Account deficits should be financed by future over-growth of these countries.

As there will be some credit shortfalls, I guess, that at least in the short-to-mid term, growth will not come so fast back to Ukraine.

Although Ukraine and China are both to be considered emerging economies, the differences could not be greater. China is a net-exporter, with a still relativley cheap workforce as one of the main success factors. On the other hand, Ukraine faces problems concerning the demography, which usually are only faced by high-developed-industrialized countries. So how should the convergence process go on in such an economy, if you cannot build up capital stock by cheap labor force?

I agree that demographic problem is a main one in Ukraine for longer-term perspectives. And definatley, as Edward argued, it also is a driver of inflation. But I would not make demography responsible for all inflation we have seen in Ukraine, respectivley still see.

There are obviously structural problems in the country, meaning that entrepreneurship is very difficult to execute, we have low onwnership-rights and in general a big political uncertainty with direct consequences on business. What this all leads to is in the end a relativley low domestic production, which also can be seen now by the still relative high inflation although the economy is shrinking fast. I mean they have to import a lot as they don't produce this themself. So all these structural factors lead to a relativley low supply facing a relativley high demand, contributing directly to the inflationary process.

Additionally, we had at least until recently a pegged-currency, serving on one hand some interests of exporters but also lead to higher import prices.

I mean this all doesn't say that inflation should be relativley low. But if such problems wouldn't exist and we would only have the demography, inflation would be quite lower, but still high.

Bob Merton

Anonymous said...

Wirtschaft // Montag, 06.04.2009
Ukrainische Wirtschaft schrumpfte im IV. Quartal 2008 um 8%

Das BIP der Ukraine fiel, den Angaben des staatlichen Komitees für Statistik nach, im IV. Quartal im Vergleich zur analogen Periode des Jahres 2007 um 8%. Dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) wurden in diesem Zeitraum real 252,670 Mrd. Hrywnja hinzugefügt, der BIP-Deflator betrug 127,8%.

Das BIP stieg im I. Quartal 2008 im Vergleich zur Vorjahresperiode um 6,3% und es wurden, bei einem BIP-Deflator von 126,6%, real 187,717 Mrd. Hrywnja dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt hinzugefügt.

Im zweiten Quartal 2008 betrug der Anstieg 6,2%, der BIP-Deflator lag bei 131,9% und real wurden Werte von 233,7 Mrd. Hrywnja erzeugt.

Im ersten Halbjahr 2008 stieg damit das BIP um 6,3%, das BIP lag faktisch bei 421,417 Mrd. Hrywnja und der BIP-Deflator bei 129,5%.

Das dritte Quartal 2008 endete mit einem Anstieg des BIP um 6,4% im Vergleich zur Vorjahresperiode und es wurden real Güter und Dienstleistungen für 275,777 Mrd. Hrywnja erzeugt, der BIP-Deflator wurde mit 129,8% angegeben.

In den ersten 9 Monaten des Jahres 2008 lag somit der Anstieg des BIP noch bei 6,3% und es wurde ein reales BIP von 697,194 Mrd. Hrywnja bei einem BIP-Deflator von 129,6% erreicht.

Den Ergebnissen des Jahres 2008 nach stieg das BIP um 2,1% und erreichte einen faktischen Wert von 949,864 Mrd. Hrywnja. Der BIP-Deflator für das Gesamtjahr lag bei 129,1%.

Früher veröffentlichte das Staatliche Komitee für Statistik der Ukraine die Daten für das BIP jeden Monat. 2009 wurde die Entscheidung getroffen nur die Quartalsergebnisse zu veröffentlichen. Den Worten des Vorsitzenden des Statistikamtes, Alexandr Osaulenko, nach, ist das BIP ein schwieriger zusammengefasster Indikator, der es erlaubt die Entwicklungstendenzen der Wirtschaft im Ganzen zu verfolgen. “Für das operative Management der Wirtschaftsbranchen ist er nicht erforderlich. Dafür berechnen und veröffentlichen wir monatlich die Indikatoren der einzelnen Branchen”, sagte Osaulenko.

Die makroökonomischen Wert des letzten Jahres analysierend, betonen Experten, dass die Erhöhung des realen BIP nur dank der hohen Werte der Tätigkeit des Agrarsektors gelang. Die übrigen Branchen der Volkswirtschaft wiesen den Ergebnissen des Jahres nach negative Wachstumswerte auf.

Dem Staatshaushalt des Jahres 2009 ist ein Wachstum des BIPs auf einem Niveau von 0,4% und eine Inflation von 9,5% zugrunde gelegt.h

Yuri said...

The economy of Ukraine is an emerging free market, with a gross domestic product that experienced rapid growth in from independence until the late 2000s. Ukraine's economy is ranked 45th in the world according to 2008 GDP (nominal) with the total nominal GDP of 188 billion USD , and 3,900 USD GDP per capita. Formerly a major component of the economy of the Soviet Union, the country's economy experienced major recession during the 1990s, including hyperinflation and drastic falls in economic output; GDP growth was first registered in 2000, and continued for several years. In 2007 the economy continued to grow and posted real GDP growth of 7%.
Yuriy Mizyuk

Yuri said...

The economy of Ukraine is an emerging free market, with a gross domestic product that experienced rapid growth in from independence until the late 2000s. Ukraine's economy is ranked 45th in the world according to 2008 GDP (nominal) with the total nominal GDP of 188 billion USD , and 3,900 USD GDP per capita. Formerly a major component of the economy of the Soviet Union, the country's economy experienced major recession during the 1990s, including hyperinflation and drastic falls in economic output; GDP growth was first registered in 2000, and continued for several years. In 2007 the economy continued to grow and posted real GDP growth of 7%.
Yuriy Mizyuk